Lender Update: Sept 22, 2023

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Touch Points

Fed Developments:

  • Interest rates remain unchanged.
  • Economic activity is solid; job growth has slowed but remains strong.
  • 2023 Forecasts: GDP at 2.1%, unemployment at 3.8%, PCE inflation at 3.3%, core PCE inflation at 3.7%. One more rate hike is anticipated this year.
  • The Fed signaled one more cut over the next two meetings and now anticipates only two cuts in 2024, down from the previously projected four.


Powell's Insights:

  • Emphasized recent positive labor reports and stated that Fed's restriction will only be evident in hindsight.
  • Powell's optimistic stance contrasts with other indicators hinting at a potential recession.


Market Indicators:

  • Campbell Harvey predicts a recession around Dec/Jan, highlighting historical patterns of the inverted yield curve.
  • Meanwhile, Initial Jobless Claims show a robust economy, with claims dropping to 201,000 last week.


Housing Market:

  • August saw a 0.7% decrease in Existing Home Sales.
  • Inventory remains tight, while the median home price has risen to $407,100.
  • Homes are selling quickly if priced right, and first-time buyers account for 29% of sales.


NAR Survey:

  • 39% of prospective buyers await decreased rates, while 26% delay due to multiple offers on properties.



Below are my lowest interest rates priced at PAR using a 760 FICO score for 09/22/2023. This scenario has been shopped across 100+ wholesale lenders. Please reach out to me with any questions.